Boise Idaho Housing Market Crash Over in May 2023

If you're looking at moving to the Boise, Idaho area or maybe you already own here and wondering what exactly is happening with the housing market here in Boise, Idaho, we're diving into whether home prices are continuing to fall or if they've actually begun to bounce back, and we're getting after it right now.

Hey everyone! So, you're looking to move here to Boise or maybe you already live here and you're looking to buy or sell a home. Well, the good news is that the housing market here in the Boise area is beginning to rebound as we head full steam into the spring and summer selling season. But you're probably still hearing doom and gloom in the headline news and other YouTubers trying to get more views. So let's cover what's really happening with home prices here in Boise and what this means for you if you're getting ready to buy or sell a home.

Now, the truth is that home prices are still off the market high that we had last year in May 2022 at six hundred and two thousand dollars. However, home prices have appeared to have bottomed out and are actually rising here in Ada County. So, if you're thinking that the housing market in Boise is still overpriced and waiting for home prices to fall even more, I've got to be honest with you, and frankly, that already has really happened. Housing prices did fall by 20% from last year, but they've already risen seven percent and continuing to chip away at the losses over the past year.

I'm anticipating inflation to really start to drop off as several things that make up core inflation continue to drop, including shelter costs, oil, and used cars. Both oil and used cars actually spiked in April. Mortgage rates continued to hang out around six and a half percent and have pretty much stayed there for the past few months with some minor fluctuations. If inflation continues to fall over the summer, then mortgage rates should fall accordingly, and we could see a big uptick in demand this summer. In fact, for every one percent drop in interest rates, 5 million buyers become eligible to purchase homes. We've seen stable sales activity here in Boise as we head into the spring and summer months.

So, not a lot of additional homes are being sold. About 1,260 homes were sold last month, which is about 600 homes less than last year. And housing prices in Ada County, including Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, and Kuna, rose by about seven percent from 400,183 thousand dollars to 517,000 dollars, or about thirty thousand dollars this past month.

Canyon County, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, has been lagging Ada County, and it's been pretty flat for home prices, which we'll cover a little later in this video. So, if you were holding off buying a home here in the Boise area, it does really appear that now is a good time to get a good price on a home and still get concessions from sellers like credits to help cover closing costs and interest rate buy-downs.

If you're a seller that didn't want to chase housing prices down and you've been waiting for things to stabilize, well, we are seeing a lot more activity on homes, and well-priced homes are selling for over list price again. And we're going to cover exactly what you need to know if you're looking to buy or sell a home in this video.

Now, I realize this is completely different from what you will hear in the mainstream media and even from other YouTubers. Both groups are really good at using fear to get you to read or watch to generate more views. But that's why you're watching this video because you know that I really dig into what's really going on to help you make great decisions about real estate here in Idaho.

Now, the mainstream news is still reporting on data that is several months old and telling you that home prices are going down and mortgage rates are going up. But honestly, the complete opposite is true. Home prices have actually bottomed out and are going up, and mortgage rates have stabilized for months now around six and a half percent. So, stay tuned why I think we might be on the verge of why prices could really start to ratchet back up.

And real quick, my name is Curtis Chism with the Chism team brokered by Exp Realty. And if you are looking to move here to Idaho or you're looking to buy or sell a home, then all you've got to do is reach out to me via phone, text, or email, and let's chat about that, whether it's nine days, 90 days, or even two years out. We always help people buy and sell real estate here in Idaho, just like you, and I absolutely love it.

All right, let's jump into the housing market here in Boise. Now, if you've been following me, you'll know that mortgage rates were really tied to inflation, not the FED raising or lowering the overnight lending rates to banks. So, the reason for this is that banks have to lend money at or above inflation rates. You'll also know that I've been predicting that inflation rates will continue to fall, and mortgage rates with them. And sure enough, inflation has fallen again to 4.9 percent, down from 5 and down from six percent a couple of months ago.

Now, existing home sales, being resale homes, went up 8.4 percent or forty thousand dollars. Now, new construction homes rose two and a half percent to five hundred and twenty thousand dollars. Now, resale homes are starting to sell much faster with the average days on market falling almost in half from 58 days on market to 31 days on the market for resale homes. Let's get another indicator that the market has picked up again.

As we work our way through spring, home prices in Canyon County are sitting at three hundred and ninety thousand dollars and pretty much flat. And home prices have been bouncing around three hundred and ninety thousand to three hundred and ninety-five thousand dollars since December. The inventory of homes remains very low at just 1,100 homes in Ada County and 650 homes in Canyon County, overall just a 1.7 months supply of inventory. This is very similar inventory to what we had last year when the market was still very hot but about half of what a normal market should be for this time of year.

We are seeing some bidding wars on homes that are priced and marketed very well. And if the home is overpriced, then it is taking a lot longer to sell. And the other big data point that I like to look at is the final sales to list price percentage. And this tells us how much above or below the list price that homes, on average, have sold for here in Boise. We're sitting at about 99 percent final sales to list price. So, this is showing us that we are swinging back into a seller's market since the average is over 98 percent.

So, what does all this mean for you if you're buying a home or if you're thinking about buying and you've been trying to time the market at the bottom? I'm here to tell you that I really believe that we have essentially hit bottom and are starting to climb out of it. I've had people tell me that they're waiting for prices to fall. But frankly, prices already did fall. They fell 20 percent and have already rebounded back seven percent from the low. If prices were to fall again by 15 to 25 percent, that some people are really wishing for, that would literally be the first time ever this happened to have that kind of cycle in one year. So, I just wouldn't count on that. I would count on prices being at least stable or going up for now.

If you're ready to stop renting and looking to buy your first home or make that move up or downsize home purchase, now is really the time to start looking at jumping back in. I've been saying that the window of opportunity for buyers to purchase a home and be able to negotiate price reductions, repairs, and credits was probably going to close around April or May of this year, and that's really starting to come out to be true. There actually is still some opportunity for that, but builders are starting to offer fewer incentives now too.

Now, some homes, you still will have negotiation power, and it really comes down to each home that you're looking at, depending on how the home is positioned, meaning priced, home improvements that are done, and how well it's marketed. It will depend on how much buyer interest there is in that home. If there is a lot of interest, then you're just not going to have as much negotiation power to extract those credits and price reductions. If a home is overpriced, then there will be less interest, and you'll have more power. But that's why you need to call me, text me, or email me today, whether you're nine days or 90 days out or even two years out, to help you buy that home.

So, we can analyze each home that you're really interested in and find out what the best offer strategy is to use on that home. Every home is different and requires a different offer strategy. So, just be prepared that our options are going to be much more limited now than they were a few months ago. If you are planning to sell a home, even though buyer demand is getting stronger and prices are stabilizing and climbing, they're still not fully back in a seller's market, as you can see from the average sales price to list price that we are over 98 percent.

However, there are still homes that are having to have price drops, and this number doesn't reflect credits sellers are giving to buyers. We are essentially what I would call a balanced-plus market, meaning it's more important than ever that you call me so we can put together a customized plan to sell your home on the best terms that you're looking for. We'll make sure that you don't overprice the home, causing it to sit for months. And we'll price it with a proven strategy to generate tons of traffic online, which will turn into showings, offers, and then bidding wars. So, this will actually help give you more leverage that you need to get the price and terms that you want.

Also, be aware that even if there are multiple offers, you may still need to be prepared to give some closing cost credits to help buyers with interest rate buy-down so that they can actually afford to purchase the home. If you are wanting to get an idea of what your home may sell for and what it should be priced at, just contact me, and I'll run a no-obligation home value for you.

Well, that is a complete overview of the housing market here in the Boise, Idaho area. Leave a comment below, let me know what you think, or email me back and let me know what you thought. And I'll see you in the next video.